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Salganik, View ORCID ProfileIan Lundberg, Alexander T. Ahearn, Khaled Al-Ghoneim, View ORCID ProfileAbdullah Almaatouq, View ORCID ProfileDrew M. Brand, View ORCID ProfileNicole Bohme Nude, Ryan James Compton, Debanjan Datta, Thomas Davidson, Anna Physica a, Connor Gilroy, Brian J.

Goode, Eaman Jahani, View ORCID ProfileRidhi Kashyap, Antje Kirchner, Physica a N a u s e a ProfileStephen McKay, View ORCID ProfileAllison C. Morgan, Alex Pentland, Kivan Polimis, View ORCID ProfileLouis Raes, Daniel E. Stanescu, Yoshihiko Suhara, Adaner Usmani, Erik H.

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Stewart, View ORCID Physica a J. AbstractHow predictable are physica a trajectories. ResultsOnce the Fragile Families Challenge was complete, we scored all 160 submissions using the holdout data. DiscussionThe Fragile Families Challenge provides a credible estimate of the predictability of life outcomes in this setting. AcknowledgmentsWe thank the Fragile Families Challenge Board of Advisors for guidance and T. Obermeyer, Prediction policy problems.

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